TheThirdWave

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A book by AlvinToffler? that views history as a series of coherent "waves". The first wave was agriculture, the second the Industrial Revolution and the third is what's going on now. (What follows is somewhat simplified.)

To take one item: the nature of time. After the agricultural revolution, people worked on their own fields and if they were late only they suffered. After the industrial revolution, people worked in factories. If they were late the whole production line might have to wait for them. Thus time became synchronised, coordinated and precise. Punctuality is taken for granted by us, but if you visit "backward" parts of the world you find people with the old notion of time.

Today time is becoming desynchronised. For example, instead of telephones (both particpents online simultaneously) we have email (decoupled temporally). Instead of broadcast TV (everyone watches the same thing at the same time) we have video tape recorders (for time-shift viewing) and video on demand. Instead of a regular 9-5 office job we have flexitime and telecommuting. This is not a backwards step. It generally results in greater efficiency.

Another item: specialisation. The agricultural revolution had tools made by hand, each crafted individually and unique. The industrial revolution lead to production lines turning out thousands of items, all the same. It was more efficient because of economies of scale. Any colour you like so long as it is black.

Nowadays everything is customised and specialised. Production lines turn out thousands of items, all different, because the smart machines get reconfigured on the fly. Any colour you like, and optional sun roof, airbags, ABS too. It is more efficient because it is tuned.

I consider the TheThirdWave to be an important book. It changed the way I thought about things by pointing out general patterns. (Don't be put off by the first 30 or 40 pages of woffle.)

TheThirdWave

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